Commentary

Q2 2026 Market & Economic Review

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Commentary

Second Quarter Highlights

  • The +15.2% gain over the second quarter of 2026 marked the strongest quarterly performance for the S&P 500 in six years. This is an impressive feat, provided the index was down -1% in the month of June. Results from the second quarter have brought the year-to-date figure to +10.2%.
  • One of the more encouraging themes underlying this year’s performance has been the broadening out of returns, which is refreshingly different than outsized gains being attributable to only a handful of stocks that had become seemingly standard since late 2022.
  • The inflation rate shifted upward as higher energy prices endured for most of the quarter. In May, the year-over-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core CPI increased 4.2% and 2.9%, respectively.
  • In June, unemployment declined to 4.2% while monthly non-farm payrolls continued to drop. The disconnect between joblessness and payroll growth is attributable to a declining workforce, which has shrunk by 1.7 million this year. Thus far, weaker employment conditions have not negatively impacted the economy.

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures changes in the price level of a weighted average market basket of consumer goods and services purchased by households.