Highlights:
- The S&P 500 dipped -1.3% in February, reflecting the stock market's sensitivity to uncertainty, with concerns over tariffs, inflation, and a weakening consumer sentiment.
- The "Magnificent 7" tech stocks, which had been market leaders, faced a downturn due to concerns over AI investments and competition from China’s AI breakthrough.
- The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast projected a -1.5% contraction in Q1, driven by slowing consumer spending and exports, along with potential ripple effects from government layoffs.
- The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma between cutting rates to counteract a slowing economy or holding rates to control inflation.
A well-worn phrase states that the stock market hates uncertainty. February was a case in point, as the S&P 500 Index dipped -1.3%. This brought the year-to-date index return to 1.4%, though the gain feels increasingly fragile. While there appear to be no deep cracks in what remains a fundamentally strong domestic economy, there were reasons for concern. As tariffs moved from negotiating strategy towards implementation, economists and corporate leaders scrambled to ascertain the complex impacts. Some of this concern percolated to the consumer level as sentiment faltered. Public projections for future inflation spiked, no doubt fueled in part by the skyrocketing price of eggs. While the culprit was mostly bird flu, consumers likely remembered the 2024 election campaign which encouraged voters to use egg prices as a barometer of inflation. The awareness that tariffs can have a ripple effect on prices further fuels concerns about reigniting the steep inflation which peaked in 2022.
Then there was the Magnificent 7. For much of the trailing two years, the leading technology companies lumped under the term carried much of the market, reaching close to 35% of the S&P 500's cap-weighted valuation mid-2024. Such a top-heavy index is bound to be volatile, and so far this year the direction of that movement has been decidedly downward, as six of the seven leading stocks dipped. The downturn was sparked by China's allegedly low-cost AI breakthrough, DeepSeek, but compounded by broad concerns over the return on investment from the huge infrastructure spending underway to support AI.
The latest GDPNow forecast from the Atlanta Fed hinted at broader economic troubles extending far beyond the price of eggs. A preliminary finding showed that the national economy was on pace to shrink -1.5% in the first quarter, with consumer spending and exports both slowing. Consumer spending, which constitutes two-thirds of the U.S. economy, has supported GDP through otherwise challenging periods. However, the bulk of this spending was clearly in the hands of the affluent, powered by the wealth effect of rising equity valuations. A drop off in January when the market was solidly positive bodes concern since any future market drops, including February's, could accelerate this trend. Another factor with difficult-to-measure implications is the wave of government layoffs. These jobs are actually not concentrated in Washington and will have direct impacts across the county. They also have a chilling effect on sentiment via the indirect effect on friends, family, and neighbors.
All of these uncertainties will likely weigh heavy on the Federal Reserve, which may find itself in a bind between cutting rates to counteract a slowing economy and holding rates to dampen inflation. It's also a challenge for investment managers. Our own prejudice keeps us leery of the more speculative edges of the market and concentrated on the best domestic companies with solid moats around their businesses. While all stocks are potentially subject to market volatility, we hold a deep conviction in the long-term success of these companies.