This past month, we’ve seen a slight rotation from the mega caps to mid and small caps and just about everything in between. What do you think is driving this reversal, and does it have staying power?
It’s challenging to predict when market trends will end or continue. Historically, we’ve seen expensive stocks become even more expensive in the short to medium term, while cheap stocks can continue to decline. Consider the tech bubble in the late 90s or the financial bubble in the 2000s—both lasted much longer than anticipated. Alan Greenspan spoke of irrational exuberance in 1996, yet that [bull] market lasted years longer than expected. There’s no clear signal for these rotations, so it’s crucial to focus on the intrinsic value of companies. This approach provides an anchor when deciding whether to buy or sell.
In your most recent letter, you acknowledge AI’s potential to transform society but express skepticism about its short-term economic returns. Companies are already spending billions of dollars on AI. How do you evaluate whether these AI investments will translate to sustainable economic value for a company?
As you can imagine, we’ve dedicated a lot of time to this question over the past few years. The returns on many AI investments are difficult to gauge. For some companies, positive returns are possible, but it’s challenging to form a strong opinion. Fortunately, we don’t need a strong opinion on every potential investment. We only make a handful of investments in our portfolios each year, so we don’t need an opinion on 95 out of 100 potential opportunities that come across our desk. Many questions, especially regarding AI and its economic returns, end up in what we call the “too hard” pile.
When just a handful of stocks get all the media coverage, it can be difficult for investors to resist that fear of missing out and stay disciplined. How does your philosophy and process guide investment decisions, particularly during periods of market hype?
Our focus is on determining a company’s intrinsic value, which is independent of news, opinions, or the stock market’s mood on any given day. Internally, the most important thing for us is that we promote a culture that prioritizes the value of a company over daily news fluctuations. We constantly ask ourselves whether news or events actually impact a company’s value. In other words, does it increase [or decrease] profits on a sustainable, long-term basis?
What opportunities has this concentrated market presented down the market cap spectrum or across industries?
While we don’t necessarily see large pockets of opportunities, there is potential in less popular areas. We aim to understand significant trends like AI due to their potential impact on society and our investments. However, looking beyond these headline topics can reveal opportunities. Smaller caps tend to be cheaper than larger companies, and non-tech companies are often more affordable. Even within technology, the heavy focus on AI has weakened demand for other tech vendors, creating opportunities outside the AI domain.