TARIFFS
This week, President Trump announced 25% tariffs on all auto imports. Tariffs on fully assembled autos are scheduled to start on April 3, while tariffs on auto parts will begin on May 3. Additionally, President Trump threatened Canada with bigger tariffs if Canada works with the EU to retaliate against U.S. interests.
Our Take: There was very little market reaction to the announcements. Market participants have grown accustomed to “on again, off again” tariff threats and appear to be waiting for actual implementation before moving markets. That said, continued rhetoric surrounding potential tariffs has led to heightened economic uncertainty.
INFLATION
The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) rose 0.3% in February and is up 2.5% over the past twelve months. Core PCE (excluding food and energy) rose 0.4% and 2.8% respectively over the same periods.
Our Take: The story on inflation remains unchanged; progress toward the Fed’s 2% target appears to have slowed. The Fed is unlikely to change rates soon, especially given the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and their effect on inflation. The market is still pricing in two rate cuts in 2025, apparently believing that a slowing economy should cool price increases.