Weekly Mosaic Update


Top of Mind - Week of November 17, 2025

  • The longest Federal Government shutdown on record ended last week after 43 days, as an agreement was struck in Washington to fund the government until the end of January 2026.
     
  • Due to the shutdown, establishment data reports, such as those on employment and inflation, have been delayed.
     
  • With the government resuming operations, some of the data that would have been reported is set to be released this week, starting with the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) September job market report, initially scheduled for October 3rd and now set for this Thursday.
     
  • Given the duration of this government shutdown, there is growing uncertainty not only about when, but also if the BLS will release the labor market and inflation data for October. 
     
  • Amid data uncertainty, the tone of many Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members has become more hawkish, leading to a drop in market expectations for a December rate cut. 
     
  • Should Thursday’s labor market report indicate that the employment market has softened further, markets would likely view this bad news as good news, as the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December would move higher.  

 

Top of Mind - Week of November 10, 2025

  • The third-quarter earnings season is drawing to a close, with 91% of S&P 500 companies having reported results. 
     
  • The blended revenue growth rate (combining actual numbers from the 91% that have reported and the estimates of the remaining 9% yet to report) for the third quarter stands at +8.3%, continuing the S&P 500’s impressive run of 20 consecutive quarters of positive revenue growth. Encouragingly, revenue growth has been broad-based, with all 11 sectors posting year-over-year gains.
     
  • Earnings have been strong with 82% of companies reporting earnings above estimates, with last week’s figures pushing the blended earnings per share (EPS) growth rate to +13.1% for the third quarter, compared to the third quarter of last year.  Results have been much higher than the estimated +7.9% EPS growth rate that was penciled in for the quarter on 9/30/2025.
     
  • While the index has certainly continued to benefit from the impressive results of its largest constituents, where the top 10 holdings of the index currently represent roughly 40% of the index, we remain encouraged by the economic backdrop that we believe will be conducive to a broadening out of equity returns.  

 

Top of Mind - Week of November 3, 2025

  • The Federal Reserve (Fed) cut interest rates on Wednesday, lowering the Fed Funds policy rate to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%.
     
  • Uncertainty among the members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) appears to have grown after the last two interest rate cuts were not unanimous, with some members believing an interest rate cut wasn’t necessary, while others favored a larger rate cut.
     
  • In addition to the policy rate adjustment, they set December 1st as the end date for their current balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) campaign.
     
  • The Fed will no longer allow its Treasury holdings to run off but will continue to let its holdings in Mortgage-Backed Securities mature, reinvesting those proceeds into Treasury Bills. The Fed Chairman indicated that the FOMC would like the composition of the Fed’s balance sheet to have a similar duration profile to that of the entire Treasury market. The long end of the yield curve may have just lost a price-agnostic buyer, for the time being. 
     
  • As the Federal Government remains shut down, the lack of economic data has started to weigh on the Fed’s decision-making process, with the Fed Chairman pushing back on the certainty of an interest rate cut at their next meeting in December.  

 

Top of Mind - Week of October 27, 2025

  • It’s highly anticipated that the Federal Reserve will cut the official policy interest rate by 0.25% this week, marking the second consecutive meeting that they’ve elected to ease monetary policy.
     
  • Many are quick to point out that, due to the ongoing shutdown, the Fed is moving forward with easing policy despite a lack of economic data, such as the latest nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate, which are released by various government entities, such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
     
  • While there has certainly been a drop in the volume of data released by government entities, the Fed and the market have plenty of alternative data sources to inform decision-making in the absence of the heavily revised establishment data.
     
  • Financial conditions remain easy. On a year-over-year basis, the prices of energy (measured by crude oil), the US dollar, and the 2-year Treasury yield are all lower. Furthermore, despite lingering concerns in areas of the credit market, credit spreads for investment-grade corporate borrowers remain near the low end of their historical range. 
     
  • In addition to the anticipated rate cut, the Fed will likely provide further insights into its framework for ending its efforts to reduce its balance sheet, signaling additional easing.  

 

Top of Mind - Week of October 20, 2025

  • This past week, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed’s latest bout of balance sheet reduction, quantitative tightening, is likely nearing its end.
     
  • To reduce their balance sheet, as they have in the past, the Fed is not reinvesting the proceeds from maturing bonds each month up to a set limit, thereby allowing their balance sheet to run off.
     
  • After more than three years of controlled balance sheet decline, as of last Wednesday, the Fed’s portfolio of Treasury and Agency mortgage-backed securities stood at just under $6.6 trillion, down from nearly $9.0 trillion when they embarked on their latest round of quantitative tightening.
     
  • Impressively, despite the Fed intentionally reducing their holdings by nearly $2.4 trillion since early 2022, the US economy has avoided what may have been one of the most overly forecasted recessions and the equity market has hardly missed a beat, with the S&P 500 standing over 50% higher today than it was in the spring of 2022. 
     
  • As their latest effort to reduce the balance sheet concludes, more signs of credit stress have surfaced. The question now turns to how long until they switch gears and begin to expand their balance sheet, quantitative easing, once again. 

 

Top of Mind - Week of October 13, 2025

  • Equity markets plunged at the end of last week as news broke of the administration’s intentions to raise tariffs on China, yet again, after Beijing announced export restrictions on rare-earth minerals.
     
  • In addition to threatening more tariffs, President Trump announced that he no longer saw a reason for a side meeting between himself and President Xi at the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting in South Korea.
     
  • Over the weekend, both sides have softened their rhetoric, and the probability of a meeting between the two leaders appears to be back on the rise.
     
  • The US government remains closed, and having a deal done by the 15th of October, which many had earmarked for a deal as it’s the first federal payday since the shutdown started, appears to be improbable, as the administration has taken measures to ensure that the military continues to get paid despite the shutdown. 
     
  • With the shutdown continuing, establishment economic data, such as this week’s Producer Price Index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, will not be released. The only data release anticipated by the BLS is the Consumer Price Index report, which was rescheduled for release on October 24th, as it is a key component of the cost-of-living adjustment the Social Security Administration needs for next year’s benefits. 
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The S&P 500® Index is a large-cap market index that measures the performance of a representative sample of 500 leading companies in leading industries in the U.S.

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The MSCI ACWI ex USA Index captures large and mid cap representation across 22 of 23 Developed Markets countries (excluding the US) and 23 Emerging Markets countries. With 1,843 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the global equity opportunity set outside the US.

The VIX Index is a calculation designed to produce a measure of constant, 30-day expected volatility of the U.S. stock market, derived from real-time, mid-quote prices of S&P 500® Index (SPXSM) call and put options.

The Magnificent Seven stocks are a group of high-performing and influential companies in the U.S. stock market: Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Tesla.

The harmonized index of consumer prices, abbreviated as HICP, is the consumer price index as it is calculated in the European Union (EU), according to a harmonized approach and a single set of definitions. It is mainly used to measure inflation.

The federal funds rate is the target interest rate range set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) for banks to lend or borrow excess reserves overnight. It influences monetary and financial conditions, short-term interest rates, and the stock market.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index is a combination of ten seasonally adjusted components. It provides an indication of the health of small businesses in the United States.

Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) is a survey-based economic indicator designed to provide a timely insight into business conditions.

The Coincident Economic Activity Index includes four indicators: nonfarm payroll employment, the unemployment rate, average hours worked in manufacturing and wages and salaries.

Bond Spread is the difference between yields on differing debt instruments of varying maturities, credit ratings, and risk, calculated by deducting the yield of one instrument from another.\

A basis point is one hundredth of a percent.

Yield Curve is a line that plots yields (interest rates) of bonds having equal credit quality but differing maturity dates. The slope of the yield curve gives an idea of future interest rate changes and economic activity. There are three main types of yield curve shapes: normal (upward-sloping curve), inverted (downward-sloping curve), and flat.