Weekly Mosaic Update


Top of Mind - Week of April 21, 2025

  • At the start of 2025, US equities weren’t alone in appearing fully valued: investment grade and high yield corporate credit traded at or near historically tight spread levels, while the securitized sector offered relatively attractive spreads. 
     
  • Elevated uncertainty surrounding trade policy has since driven corporate credit spreads wider, improving valuations compared to much of the last year, with securitized spreads also widening. 
     
  • Persistent uncertainty and the absence of new trade deals continue to fuel speculation about the direction of the economy and could continue to weigh on credit spreads. 
     
  • Despite the possibility of further spread widening, the balance sheet strength of investment-grade corporate credit issuers remains strong, and the credit enhancement of the securitized sector positions both as compelling opportunities.

 

Top of Mind - Week of April 14, 2025

  • Turbulence shifted from stocks to bonds last week. The S&P 500 spent much of the week rallying on the back of the announced 90-day pause in reciprocal tariffs, excluding China, sending the index up +5.7% for the week.
     
  • However, after an intraday plunge below 3.9%, the 10-year US Treasury rate exploded higher, nearing 4.6% late in the week. Concerningly, the US dollar weakened as rates rose, falling -3%. This combination is seldom seen in developed markets, let alone the US bond market. 
     
  • It’s fair to speculate that the rapid increase in yields played an important role in the 90-day pause. The Administration has been abundantly clear that it wants lower interest rates. Credit spreads also widened, doubling the stress on corporate borrowing costs.
     
  • Over the weekend, short-term tariff exemptions were granted on several electronic goods and semiconductors, in another positive step toward de-escalation.  
     
  • We expect volatility to remain high, but are gaining confidence that we have reached peak uncertainty. It’s likely that any further protest by the US bond market will be met with more accommodation by the Administration.

 

Top of Mind - Week of April 7, 2025

  • Global equity markets were thrust into a policy-induced selloff after last Wednesday’s “reciprocal” tariffs announcement. 
     
  • Policy uncertainty had been steadily rising since the middle of the first quarter and was turbocharged by the tariff announcement. 
     
  • Volatility, as measured by the VIX, rose in concert with elevated policy uncertainty and hovered structurally higher throughout much of the first quarter, and also leapt much higher post-announcement. 
     
  • While the risk of a recession has materially increased over the past week, markets will continue to seek clarity on policy from the Administration (delay and/or easing of tariffs), Congress (tax cuts), and the Federal Reserve (interest rate cuts). 
     
  • This is an incredibly fluid situation with the potential to change rapidly. We remain disciplined and steadfast in our approach, closely monitoring ongoing developments and adjusting portfolios accordingly.

 

Top of Mind - Week of March 31, 2025

  • For much of the last six weeks, policy uncertainty driven by tariff rhetoric has dominated headlines, shaping the market narrative. 
     
  • Wednesday, April 2nd is the day circled on many calendars as Tariff Day, or T-Day, in which the administration is set to announce a litany of new tariffs on imported goods.
     
  • The lack of clarity and fluid nature of the tariffs that have already been declared, delayed, and/or withdrawn suggests that Wednesday’s announcements will likely be a starting point for negotiations.
     
  • The current effective tariff rate, as estimated by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, is roughly 2-3%. As details and negotiations unfold, the effective tariff rate is expected to trend toward a higher level by year-end, and markets will adjust accordingly.
     
  • Once policy uncertainty peaks, we anticipate that volatility in the equity markets will begin to recede as the administration transitions focus from tariffs to deregulation and tax policy.

 

Top of Mind - Week of March 24, 2025

  • Following its second meeting of 2025 on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve (Fed) held the Federal Funds Rate steady at 4.25-4.50%, as expected, adopting a cautious stance to assess the impact of tariffs on prices before delivering further rate cuts.
     
  • The Fed’s latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) revealed a dimmer outlook than December’s, with lower GDP growth, alongside higher inflation and higher unemployment forecasts for 2025. 
     
  • In addition, the Fed adjusted its balance sheet reduction program (quantitative tightening), reducing the monthly Treasury cap from $25 billion to $5 billion per month while maintaining a cap of $35 billion per month on mortgage-backed securities. 
     
  • The Treasury just received price-agnostic buyer signaling that they will be buying nearly $200 billion more in Treasury securities this year than previously anticipated, an incremental positive for the Treasury market that is expected to have a massive level of issuance this year. 

 

Top of Mind - Week of March 17, 2025

  • On Thursday of last week, the S&P 500 officially entered correction territory, defined as a decline of 10% or more from its most recent high, in this case, since February 19th. 
     
  • Elevated policy uncertainty, driven by a persistent focus on tariffs throughout much of the past few weeks, fueled fears of a growth slowdown. With equity markets priced for perfection, it didn’t take much to send stocks lower. 
     
  • While the broad-based S&P 500 Index fell roughly 10%, many Mag-7 stocks that drove much of the returns over the last couple of years have dropped by 20% or more. 
     
  • We believe the policy uncertainty fueling this pullback will subside, and we view the recent equity market correction as encouraging long-term development. Much of the froth in the market has been re-rated lower, creating opportunities for investors. 
“Madison” and/or “Madison Investments” is the unifying tradename of Madison Investment Holdings, Inc., Madison Asset Management, LLC (“MAM”), and Madison Investment Advisors, LLC (“MIA”). MAM and MIA are registered as investment advisers with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Madison Funds are distributed by MFD Distributor, LLC. MFD Distributor, LLC is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a broker-dealer and is a member firm of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. The home office for each firm listed above is 550 Science Drive, Madison, WI 53711. Madison’s toll-free number is 800-767-0300.

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Non-deposit investment products are not federally insured, involve investment risk, may lose value and are not obligations of, or guaranteed by, any financial institution. Investment returns and principal value will fluctuate.

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All investing involves risks including the possible loss of principal. There can be no assurance the asset allocation portfolios will achieve their investment objectives. The portfolios may invest in equities which are subject to market volatility. In addition to the general risk of investing, the portfolio is subject to additional risks including investing in bond and debt securities, which includes credit risk, prepayment risk and interest rate risk. When interest rates rise, bond prices generally fall. Securities rated below investment grade are more sensitive to economic, political and adverse development changes. International equities involve risks of economic and political instability, market liquidity, currency volatility and differences in accounting standards.

Indices are unmanaged. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. They are shown for illustrative purposes only, and do not represent the performance of any specific investment. Index returns do not include any expenses, fees or sales charges, which would lower performance.

The S&P 500® Index is a large-cap market index which measures the performance of a representative sample of 500 leading companies in leading industries in the U.S.

The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, USD-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, mortgage-backed securities, asset-backed securities, and corporate

The VIX Index is a calculation designed to produce a measure of constant, 30-day expected volatility of the U.S. stock market, derived from real-time, mid-quote prices of S&P 500® Index (SPXSM) call and put options.

The Magnificent Seven stocks are a group of high-performing and influential companies in the U.S. stock market: Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Tesla.

The harmonized index of consumer prices, abbreviated as HICP, is the consumer price index as it is calculated in the European Union (EU), according to a harmonized approach and a single set of definitions. It is mainly used to measure inflation.

The federal funds rate is the target interest rate range set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) for banks to lend or borrow excess reserves overnight. It influences monetary and financial conditions, short-term interest rates, and the stock market.

The ISM Services PMI® is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes for four of the indicators with equal weights: Business Activity (seasonally adjusted), New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted) and Supplier Deliveries. An index reading above 50 percent indicates that the services economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. Supplier Deliveries is an exception. A Supplier Deliveries Index above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index is a combination of ten seasonally adjusted components. It provides an indication of the health of small businesses in the United States.

Bond Spread is the difference between yields on differing debt instruments of varying maturities, credit ratings, and risk, calculated by deducting the yield of one instrument from another.