Weekly Mosaic Update


Top of Mind - Week of September 8, 2025

  • Treasury yields fell throughout last week as various employment data came out weaker than anticipated, with the bellwether 10-year Treasury yield ending the week below 4.10%.
     
  • The official unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3% in August. While not an alarming figure from an economic standpoint, it broke out of its range of 4.0% – 4.2% that it had been in for the last year, hitting its highest mark since late 2021.
     
  • August Nonfarm Payrolls indicated that +22K jobs were added in August, missing expectations of +75K and confirming the labor market softness previewed by the ADP report last Thursday, which came in -26K below an expected +80K.
     
  • Markets took this softness in the labor markets as evidence that the Federal Reserve will cut the policy rate at its meeting next week. 
     
  • Provided that risk assets remain priced for perfection, with equity valuations high and credit spreads near historically tight levels, if economic data releases—such as inflation readings on Wednesday and Thursday—necessitate markets to adjust to fewer interest rate cuts than currently expected, it could likely lead to increased volatility in both equities and fixed income. 

 

Top of Mind - Week of August 25, 2025

  • In the Federal Reserve Chairman’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday, he referenced that the downside risks to the labor market are now greater than the risks to higher inflation, with price pressures from tariffs being described as a one-time shift.
     
  • Also, in his address, he noted that the Fed views the current policy rate 1.0% above what they believe to be neutral, implying that they see the current target range of 4.25 – 4.50% as restrictive.
     
  • The shift in focus from inflation to the labor market, along with policymakers viewing their current stance as restrictive, seemingly solidified the probability of an interest rate cut at the next Fed meeting in September.
     
  • Asset prices responded favorably to the shift in focus, as heading into Friday’s speech, the probability of a rate cut at the September meeting had been fading. 
     
  • While most asset classes ended the week on a high note, the Magnificent 7 stocks, which have been the huge market leaders over the last few years, lagged as the market broadened out. 
     
  • A shift in the Fed’s focus, spurring them to re-engage in easing monetary policy, could provide a durable catalyst for the market to continue to broaden out. 

 

Top of Mind - Week of August 18, 2025

  • The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City is hosting its annual Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming this week, which will be attended by central bankers from across the globe.
     
  • While the Jackson Hole conference isn’t a traditional Fed meeting where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets to set and adjust monetary policy, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is set to provide a speech titled “Economic Outlook and Framework Review.”
     
  • In this speech, many will be listening for possible clues to determine the potential path of monetary policy. Will there be an overwhelmingly cautionary (dovish) tone regarding the softness of the labor market, suggesting the desire to reduce the policy rate, or will there be a cautionary (hawkish) tone in respect to the risk of inflation failing to move towards their defined target for price stability? 
     
  • Curiously, there is enough data to support either case, and both risks will likely be noted in the Fed Chairman's comments. The forward guidance, whether direct or indirect, could heavily influence the interest rate market that quickly priced in three rate cuts after July’s labor market report, only to see these probabilities fade after last week’s inflation data. 

 

Top of Mind - Week of August 11, 2025

  • Markets are anxiously awaiting this week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, as the current >85% probability of an interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next meeting in September could be in jeopardy depending on the results.
     
  • After plunging post Fed meeting on July 30th, the probability of an interest rate cut in September soared on the underwhelming July jobs report and massive revisions to the figures for both May and June.
     
  • If Tuesday’s CPI report comes in above consensus expectations of 0.23% for headline and 0.30% for core, markets would likely need to recalibrate to the reality that an interest rate cut in September isn’t a given.
     
  • An inline or softer July CPI report would likely be well received by the markets as it would help to alleviate the concerns regarding the upside inflation risk that has kept the Fed on the sidelines. 
     
  • In addition to the latest CPI report, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business report will also be issued on Tuesday.
     
  • With the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in early July and a string of tariff deals since the last report, we’ll be watching for improvement in the uncertainty and planned capital expenditures components, offering incremental positive signals for the economy moving forward. 

 

Top of Mind - Week of August 4, 2025

  • As anticipated, the Federal Reserve (Fed) did not cut interest rates last week, keeping the policy rate in a range of 4.25% to 4.50% and remaining steadfast in its wait-and-see approach to potential tariff impacts on inflation while viewing the labor market as stable.
     
  • By many measures, the labor market is in an ok place. Weekly initial jobless claims have remained at levels that aren’t flashing imminent signs of weakness, while the unemployment rate has been range-bound between 4.0% and 4.3% for over a year.
     
  • The establishment survey data had been seen as showing signs of labor market strength as non-farm payrolls had been strong so far this year.
     
  • That perception was upended on Friday when the headline non-farm payrolls number printed at +73K for July, missing expectations of +104k. More concerningly, the previous two months’ readings were revised lower by a massive -258K. 
     
  • Late last year, the Fed cut the policy rate by 1% on the presumption of a softening labor market. In turn, fixed income investors took note of Friday’s payroll miss and revisions, sending rates lower across the curve as the probability of an interest rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting in September leapt higher.

 

Top of Mind - Week of July 28, 2025

  • The stock and credit market recoveries off the “Liberation Day” induced lows have been familiar in some respects, yet odd in others. High beta stocks have led the way higher, which is typical in rapid market recoveries; however, small cap stocks have continued to lag their large cap peers. 
     
  • This dynamic is atypical, as in many market recoveries, small cap stocks are among the market leaders.
     
  • A possible reason for small caps lagging in this recovery is that the Federal Reserve didn’t ride to the rescue by providing emergency support to the markets via reducing the policy rate, reinstituting quantitative easing, or creating yet another new liquidity facility. Thereby not providing ample relief for the more interest rate-sensitive small caps compared to their large cap peers.
     
  • As the Federal Reserve meets this week, there is little anticipation of an interest rate cut being delivered as the latest round of inflation data showed prices ticking higher and the labor market remains stable. 
     
  • Despite the lack of imminent monetary policy relief, the long and variable lags of the 1% of interest rate cuts delivered in the back half of last year could begin to show up, and the policy rate is anticipated to be another 1% lower by this time next year.

 

Top of Mind - Week of July 21, 2025

  • With over a trillion dollars in interest payments a year, it’s understandable why the Trump administration is pleading directly to Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell to aggressively cut interest rates. However, the question remains: Does the Fed need to cut, and what would be the secondary impacts if it did?
     
  • Given the seemingly stable labor market and inflation hovering above its 2% target for price stability, the Fed can afford to be patient in its wait-and-see approach, per its dual mandate.
     
  • If the Fed were to move forward with reducing the Federal Funds rate, it isn’t a given that longer-term yields, such as the bellwether 10-year Treasury and closely linked mortgage rates, would follow suit, possibly resulting in a steeper yield curve much like we saw at the end of 2024.
     
  • To directly impact longer-term interest rates, the Fed would need to institute a version of yield curve control (buying long-term Treasuries) like the Bank of Japan had implemented. 
     
  • This would likely cause additional US dollar weakness. When combined with the accommodative fiscal policy provided by the One Big Beautiful Bill, it could create a reflationary environment that the US economy doesn’t necessarily need, yet.
“Madison” and/or “Madison Investments” is the unifying tradename of Madison Investment Holdings, Inc., Madison Asset Management, LLC (“MAM”), and Madison Investment Advisors, LLC (“MIA”). MAM and MIA are registered as investment advisers with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Madison Funds are distributed by MFD Distributor, LLC. MFD Distributor, LLC is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a broker-dealer and is a member firm of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. The home office for each firm listed above is 550 Science Drive, Madison, WI 53711. Madison’s toll-free number is 800-767-0300.

Any performance data shown represents past performance. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Non-deposit investment products are not federally insured, involve investment risk, may lose value and are not obligations of, or guaranteed by, any financial institution. Investment returns and principal value will fluctuate.

This website is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security and is not investment advice.

All investing involves risks including the possible loss of principal. There can be no assurance the asset allocation portfolios will achieve their investment objectives. The portfolios may invest in equities which are subject to market volatility. In addition to the general risk of investing, the portfolio is subject to additional risks including investing in bond and debt securities, which includes credit risk, prepayment risk and interest rate risk. When interest rates rise, bond prices generally fall. Securities rated below investment grade are more sensitive to economic, political and adverse development changes. International equities involve risks of economic and political instability, market liquidity, currency volatility and differences in accounting standards.

Indices are unmanaged. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. They are shown for illustrative purposes only, and do not represent the performance of any specific investment. Index returns do not include any expenses, fees or sales charges, which would lower performance.

The S&P 500® Index is a large-cap market index that measures the performance of a representative sample of 500 leading companies in leading industries in the U.S.

The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, USD-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, mortgage-backed securities, asset-backed securities, and corporate

Russell 1000® Growth Index is designed to track those securities within the broader Russell 1000 Index that FTSE Russell has determined exhibit growth characteristics. Russell Investment Group is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. Russell® is a trademark of Russell Investment Group.

The MSCI ACWI ex USA Index captures large and mid cap representation across 22 of 23 Developed Markets countries (excluding the US) and 23 Emerging Markets countries. With 1,843 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the global equity opportunity set outside the US.

The Magnificent Seven stocks are a group of high-performing and influential companies in the U.S. stock market: Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Tesla.

The harmonized index of consumer prices, abbreviated as HICP, is the consumer price index as it is calculated in the European Union (EU), according to a harmonized approach and a single set of definitions. It is mainly used to measure inflation.

The federal funds rate is the target interest rate range set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) for banks to lend or borrow excess reserves overnight. It influences monetary and financial conditions, short-term interest rates, and the stock market.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index is a combination of ten seasonally adjusted components. It provides an indication of the health of small businesses in the United States.

Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) is a survey-based economic indicator designed to provide a timely insight into business conditions.

The Coincident Economic Activity Index includes four indicators: nonfarm payroll employment, the unemployment rate, average hours worked in manufacturing and wages and salaries.

Bond Spread is the difference between yields on differing debt instruments of varying maturities, credit ratings, and risk, calculated by deducting the yield of one instrument from another.\

A basis point is one hundredth of a percent.

Yield Curve is a line that plots yields (interest rates) of bonds having equal credit quality but differing maturity dates. The slope of the yield curve gives an idea of future interest rate changes and economic activity. There are three main types of yield curve shapes: normal (upward-sloping curve), inverted (downward-sloping curve), and flat.