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Mike Sanders Discusses Fed Rate Expectations Amid Rising Energy Prices on Schwab Network

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Head of Fixed Income Mike Sanders joined Schwab Network to discuss rising Treasury yields, inflation and what it means for investors.

While markets have priced out rate cuts and are even pricing in potential hikes, Mike argues the Federal Reserve is unlikely to react to short-term energy-driven inflation moves that could reverse on its own.

He noted that a stretched consumer makes rate hikes hard to justify, especially as higher energy prices “are going to eat into consumers”. On where to find value, Mike said that “higher quality intermediate bonds make a lot more sense in the current environment. He points out that investors are still getting strong yields without taking on additional credit risk.

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In addition to the ongoing market risk applicable to portfolio securities, bonds are subject to interest rate risk, credit risk and inflation risk. When interest rates rise, bond prices fall; generally, the longer a bond’s maturity, the more sensitive it is to this risk. Credit risk is the possibility that the issuer of a security will be unable to make interest payments and repay the principal on its debt. Bonds may also be subject to call risk, which allows the issuer to retain the right to redeem the debt, fully or partially, before the scheduled maturity date. Proceeds from sales prior to maturity may be more or less than originally invested due to changes in market conditions or changes in the credit quality of the issuer.

A basis point is one hundredth of a percent.

Bond Spread is the difference between yields on differing debt instruments of varying maturities, credit ratings, and risk, calculated by deducting the yield of one instrument from another.

Duration is a measure of the sensitivity of the price of a bond or other debt instrument to a change in interest rates. Duration measures how long it takes, in years, for an investor to be repaid the bond’s price by the bond’s total cash flows.

The federal funds rate is the target interest rate range set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) for banks to lend or borrow excess reserves overnight. It influences monetary and financial conditions, short-term interest rates, and the stock market.

Yield Curve is a line that plots yields (interest rates) of bonds having equal credit quality but differing maturity dates. The slope of the yield curve gives an idea of future interest rate changes and economic activity. There are three main types of yield curve shapes: normal (upward-sloping curve), inverted (downward-sloping curve), and flat. A flat yield curve is one in which short-term bonds have yields similar to longer bonds.

Indices are unmanaged. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. They are shown for illustrative purposes only, and do not represent the performance of any specific investment. Index returns do not include any expenses, fees or sales charges, which would lower performance.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) is a family of indexes that measures the average change over time in selling prices received by domestic producers of goods and services.