Commentary

Q3 2026 Market & Economic Review

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Commentary

Third Quarter Highlights

  • Third-quarter earnings are anticipated to grow over 26% year-over-year, which would mark the third consecutive quarter above 25% and well above the 10-year average of 10.3%, while tariff refunds are providing an additional source of fiscal stimulus for corporate earnings.
  • Treasury yields increased sharply during the quarter, with the 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year maturities shifting +0.72% to 4.87%, +0.86% to 5.07%, and +0.83% to 5.27%, respectively, while longer-duration bonds bore the brunt of the move.
  • The re-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East disrupted global oil supplies, sending WTI crude from $70 to a peak of $107 per barrel before ending the quarter at $90.
  • Rising yields pushed bond returns into negative territory, with the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate and U.S. Corporate indexes returning -3.5% and -3.9%, respectively, while credit spreads widened modestly from historically tight levels.

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All investments contain risk and may lose value. Equities may decline in value due to both real and perceived general market, economic and industry conditions. Investing in foreign-denominated and/or -domiciled securities may involve heightened risk due to currency fluctuations, and economic and political risks, which may be enhanced in emerging markets.

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In addition to the ongoing market risk applicable to portfolio securities, bonds are subject to interest rate risk, credit risk and inflation risk. When interest rates rise, bond prices fall; generally, the longer a bond’s maturity, the more sensitive it is to this risk. Credit risk is the possibility that the issuer of a security will be unable to make interest payments and repay the principal on its debt. Bonds may also be subject to call risk, which allows the issuer to retain the right to redeem the debt, fully or partially, before the scheduled maturity date. Proceeds from sales prior to maturity may be more or less than originally invested due to changes in market conditions or changes in the credit quality of the issuer.

Bond Spread is the difference between yields on differing debt instruments of varying maturities, credit ratings, and risk, calculated by deducting the yield of one instrument from another.

Indices are unmanaged. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. They are shown for illustrative purposes only, and do not represent the performance of any specific investment. Index returns do not include any expenses, fees or sales charges, which would lower performance.

The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, U.S. dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, mortgage backed securities, asset-backed securities and corporate securities, with maturities greater than one year.

The Bloomberg U.S. Corporate Bond Index is an unmanaged market-value-weighted index of investment-grade corporate fixed-rate debt issues with maturities of one year or more.

The S&P 500® is an unmanaged index of large companies and is widely regarded as a standard for measuring large-cap and mid-cap U.S. stock-market performance. Results assume the reinvestment of all capital gain and dividend distributions.